Friday, June 29, 2012

The Latest From DEBKA

Dear Preachers:

With the ‘obamessiah’  garnering Chief Justice Roberts’ switch to the left side on the Obamacare  vote, he certainly is riding high.  What a shame!

But our biggest concerns ought to be over there in the Land of Israel where the ‘obamicans’ are working against the Netanyahu government to protect the 7th Century Jihadist Revivalists in Iran with China and Russia jumping in as part of that protection.

I awoke at 1:00 a.m. this morning.  I am picking up our neighbor, then Kale, 13, Paul’s youngest boy, and taking them fishing.  I read  17 chapters in my Bible, prayed and am now trying to finish these lines before I leave at  4:30 a.m.

A Movable Timetable

Saudis Preparing for US to Strike Iran in October

The last ten days have seen a shift in US President Barack Obama’s negative position on military action against Iran’s nuclear program.

Saudi King Abdullah and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu have been informed that Obama is in the process of "reconsideration." His aides amplified this with a couple of ifs: If the state of nuclear diplomacy between the six world powers and Iran remains unchanged - that is, inert; and if the Syrian crisis remains unresolved, the US president will reach a final decision on the use of force against Iran in the first half of October – three and a half months hence.

In private conversations, high-ranking Saudi princes, some connected to military and intelligence circles, were confiding last week to Western and Arab visitors to Riyadh their certainty that, at last, the US and maybe Israel would soon resort to military action against Iran, according to Saudi military and intelligence sources.

"It is already decided," one prince told a visiting European official. But what if President Obama changed his mind? The prince replied: "Anything can happen, of course. But this time we’re sure the American decision to attack is final and we are already making appropriate preparations. The question now isn’t if the Americans will attack Iran, but when," he said.

He was less sure about whether the US operation would take place before or after the US presidential election on November 6.

The pipeline bypassing Hormuz is up and running!

Saudi preparations, ME Muslim sources say, are going forward on two tracks:

1.  The defense of government, military and oil targets. These focus on guarding the two main Saudi oil exporting terminals at Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf coast and Abqaiq on the Red Sea against the contingency of Iranian reprisals for a US attack by missile strikes on the two terminals and raids by Iranian special forces trained in sabotage tactics.

2.  A Saudi counterattack on Iranian targets. Their air, naval and special operations units will stand ready to hit back at strategic targets within Iran if Saudi territory comes under Iranian attack.

Strongly tying in with these preparations was the announcement Wednesday, June 27, by Sheikh Hamad bin Mohammad al-Sharqi, ruler of Fujairah that the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz goes into operation this month.

Fujairah is one of the princedoms making up the seven United Arab Emirates. The UAE has built the pipeline to pump most of its oil exports from the east coast terminals to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, away from the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint controlled by Tehran.

It has an initial capacity of 1.5mn bpd rising to 1.8mn bpd, which represents the bulk of the UAE's current production of around 2.5mn bpd, Sheikh Hamad said.

A palpable sense of anticipation was also reported this week by intelligence sources among US ground, naval and air forces stationed in the Middle East.

Iran is too rich to be deterred by new sanction!

The die is cast, the Saudis believe, because US and European oil sanctions, presented by Washington as the ultimate weapon for bringing Iran to heel by choking off funding for its nuclear program, have completely missed their aim. Iran is flush with cash and has plenty put by to keep its nuclear projects rolling forward in the face of international penalties.

Internal US administration reports reveal that the soaring oil prices of recent years were a bonanza that filled Tehran’s pockets.

Even after the recent leveling-out of prices, their revenues still stand at "only" four times the August 2002 volume.

Last August, prior to the latest rounds of sanctions, the International Monetary Fund estimated Iran would earn $104 billion from its oil exports in 2012-2013. That figure is four and-a-half times the Islamic republic’s 2002-2003 receipts of $23 billion.

Even if export volumes were to drop by half and prices plummeted to $50 per barrel, Iran’s inflation-adjusted oil earnings would still be higher than they were a decade ago. The Saudis conclude that the failure of sanctions has left only one way open to halt Iran’s momentum toward a nuclear bomb and that is a military offensive.

Will a US-Israel maneuver be a launching-pad against Iran?

The impression of an operation’s imminence was also gained by American Jewish leaders during recent visits to the White House. Obama has been inviting Jewish leaders to visit him in the Oval Office in an effort to stanch the loss of Jewish support and Jewish contributions draining away from his election campaign.

Like the Saudi princes, the Jewish leaders came away with a strong sense that the president had made up his mind to attack Iran.

Israel and the US are set to conduct their largest ever military exercise in October, according to a report published in Israel Monday, June 25, which instantly caught the eye in Tehran and Riyadh.

The maneuver will feature 3,000 American and thousands of Israeli troops, advanced anti-missile defense systems and other measures for countering simultaneous fire from Iran and Syria. The drill will simulate this fire, with tens if not hundreds of rockets and missiles filling the air.

The commander of the 3rd Air Force, Lt.-Gen. Craig A. Franklin, was in Israel to establish a joint planning committee with IDF to coordinate the details of the exercise.

Israel will test its upgraded Arrow 2 defense system, while the US will deploy the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System and PAC-3 Patriot air defense platforms.

The drill is codenamed Dress Rehearsal. The Iranians and Saudis are convinced by the name that the exercise will be the opening shot of the attack on Iran in October.

What Brought the Russian President to the Middle East?

Putin Offered to Broker Israel’s Ties with Iran and Turkey - While Not Losing Sight of Oil                                           

Russian President Vladimir Putin took 48 hours off for a Middle East tour. He spent a day and a night - June 25-26 - in Israel before moving on to the Palestinian Authority and Jordan. His initiative caused wide puzzlement. What brought him to the region so soon after assuming the presidency?

The impression he left behind was that he would not be at all surprised by a US-European-Arab offensive against Syria, or a US-Israeli attack on Iran. But he sounded as though he was feeling his way past those major upsets for a useful role.   


Hence the odd proposal he made to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu when they talked in Jerusalem. Netanyahu was quite bowled over when Putin offered him the use of Moscow as a channel of communication between Jerusalem and Tehran. 


Revealing this, ME sources quote the fairly taciturn Russian president as using two phrases - "I will act as conduit" and "when need be."  


Putting these two phrases together, the Israelis followed by the Americans deduced that Putin took into account that a US strike against Iran was approaching, opening up a new field of operation for Moscow.

When one of the Israeli officials present at the Putin-Netanyahu conversation commented that Israelis and Iranians knew exactly what messages were conveyed back and forth by public means, the Russian president remarked drily: "When need be." 

This was interpreted in two ways:

1.  He wanted Israel and, more importantly, Washington to know on which side Moscow stood.  

2.  Israel as advised to think twice before turning down the offer of a Russian channel to Tehran, because in a war, it may find President Putin’s office in the Kremlin to be the only line available for transmitting and receiving secret messages to and from Tehran.    


Intelligence sources say that, since Prime Minister Netanyahu neither rejected nor accepted the Russian offer, and President Putin did not rescind it, it stays on the table and is ready to be activated "if need be."                                                                                                                                                                                         

Russia’s long borders with Muslim lands!   


In another provocative comment Putin said: "We know better than the Americans what is going on in Tehran and in Iran’s nuclear program." He did not elaborate.   


He not only offered Israel a back channel to Tehran but also touted his services as a broker, more effective than Washington, he claimed, for restoring the old close relationship between Israel and Turkey.        


When he expanded on Syria and the Arab Revolt, he made the following points:   


1. "Anyone who thinks that what began in Tunis will end in Damascus is mistaken."

This remark was taken to mean that Moscow will not let the US seize control of the entire Middle East coastline from Libya to Syria by bringing the Muslim Brotherhood to power.    


2.  Whether or not Syrian President Bashar Assad will fall is no longer interesting because he is obviously heading for a fall. But the way "they" are going is wrong. "It will bring Al Qaeda to Damascus." And that is why Russia is working hand in hand with Turkey for the sake of an orderly transition of power.

(When he talked to Netanyahu, Putin never mentioned "Americans" – only "they.")

3.  Putin referred to the Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt and its substantial role in the Syrian uprising as "an Islamist flood threatening us all." 


Russia is directly affected, he said. It is the world power closest to the Middle East and has the longest border of any superpower with Muslim countries.                                                                                                            

"We are witnessing in action an alliance between the U.S. and the Muslim Brotherhood", said the Russian leader!     


We’ll help you with Erdogan if you cut us in on your oil stake!


4.  Regarding Iran’s perception of the Arab Revolt, Putin said that by supporting it, Tehran was simply paying lip service to disguise the fact that it feels threatened.


5.  He also had a distinctive take on the Six-Power nuclear talks with Iran, in which Russia also took part as one of the six (also the US, France, Britain, China and Germany): He criticized the West as using the wrong approach and language in addressing the Iranians. They are justified in asking the West: Are we sitting together at the negotiating table or are you threatening us (with sanctions)?    


Because it is impossible to do both at once, Tehran is not willing to talk, he explained.   


6.  When the Russian president advocated an Israeli-Turkish rapprochement, he quickly fitted the issue into the context of Israel’s oil and gas strikes in the Mediterranean.


We Russians are ready to help you rebuild your relations with Erdogan, said Putin to Netanyahu, on the basis of a Russian-Israeli-Turkish-Greek-Cypriot partnership in developing those oil and gas fields.


Our only condition is that Gazprom (the Russian energy giant) finance the development of those fields and be awarded the concession for laying the pipelines carrying the gas and oil to Europe.  


"Don’t wait for the American, British or Dutch oil majors to come to you," he said. "They are too heavily invested in Arab oil. We don’t have that problem."      


While some described the Russian leader as relaxed and friendly during his 24 hours in Israel, sources in Jerusalem who heard him speak say the Russian president was terse, extremely decisive and often tough.                                                                                                                                                                                  

Egyptian President-elect Muhammed Morsi won the job by a wafer-thin 800,000 votes , which means he is short of the heft for making himself ruler of the nation in deed and not just in name. 


To give the job substance, he must tackle the herculean tasks of salvaging a sinking economy, feeding more than 90 million people and restoring the average Egyptian’s sense of security after 16 months of turmoil and uncertainty. He is already being pinned to the wall by the Obama administration, the Supreme Military Council (SCAF) and his own Muslim Brotherhood movement, each angling to clip his wings and manipulate him.

With only a small team of aides at his side, Morsi understands he has little choice for now but to bend agilely in several directions at once and hope to survive. 


Twenty-four hours after he was acclaimed president, ME sources in Washington report he was confronted with a list of 10 demands from the White House in Washington, which added up to an ultimatum.            


He was informed that the US desires the democratic process to continue in Egypt. The administration used its influence to make the SCAF move the process along - witness US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s call to the Egyptian foreign minister to insist that there must be no delay in releasing election results.          


Washington is waiting equally to see how the Egyptian president performs in the following areas:    


U.S. recognition of Morsi predicated on performance!        


1.  Human rights, namely women’s’ status and minority rights, especially relating to the Christian Copts.


2.  The formation of a broad national unity government representing the country’s active mainstream parties - not just the Muslim Brotherhood.  


3.  The new president must act to uphold the 1979 peace treaties between Egypt and Israel. His commitment to honor all treaties signed with foreign governments was not explicit enough.


4.  The Obama administration expects Morsi to make a public gesture reaffirming peace relations with Israel.   


5.  A resolute effort to curb the terrorist elements running wild in Sinai and restore Egyptian control.   


6.  It is also expected to put a stop to the rabid anti-American and anti-Western rhetoric suffusing Egyptian media and give up persecuting Western NGOs operating in Egypt. 


7.  The crunch comes here: Not until all the above steps are taken, will President Morsi be welcomed in Washington as an official guest. Although President Barack Obama Sunday called him with congratulations Sunday, contrary to reports in the Cairo press, Secretary Clinton does not plan an early visit to Egypt. 


"I think we need to let President-elect Morsi get himself inaugurated, pull his government together," she said Thursday.

8.  The $1.5 billion US military and economic aid package to Egypt may be tied to the incoming government’s respect for the peace treaty with Israel and respect for minority and religious rights, a White House source indicated Thursday.

9.  Furthermore, not until the Egyptian president has satisfied Washington on all these scores will the Obama administration use its influence with the World Bank to ease Egypt’s dire liquidity problems and help find the cash to buy food on world markets. That must be the new ruler’s first priority. If Morsi can’t find the money to feed the population, hungry Egyptians will be out on the streets of their cities once again - clamoring this time for his and the Muslim Brotherhood’s removal.

10.  And finally, a threat that would undermine the new president’s power to rule. Until the Obama administration is satisfied with his performance, the US will continue to do business on key matters and US-Egypt relations with the transitional rulers, the military council. And so, Morsi, to all intents and purposes, would continue to be denied US recognition as Egypt’s responsible ruler.  


Morsi finds he is hassled from more than one quarter. Not only the Americans, but his own movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, is knocking at his door with even more pressing demands. He will have to stand up against the MB strongman Khairat al-Shater, who was disqualified as the Brotherhood’s candidate and whom he replaced, if he wants to save Egypt’s post-revolutionary regime from being swamped by Islamists.  

So, Preachers, on the stage of ‘end-time-events-world-wide,’ gathered around Israel is first Iran, then Russia, Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon and Syria, Hamas in Gaza , the Saudis, and all the Arab countries they can muster to their sides; Germany, France, UK, and other Euro countries, then China, and, finally, the "Obama-non-birth-place-country"--the USA, and whomever else I have left out of the equation.  All of whom are ready to go in and do a number on Israel concerning Iran’s nuclear works.                 

REQUEST:  PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, MAY EVERYONE OF YOU WRITE Netanyahu’s ‘backbone’, the Vice Prime Minister, my friend Moshe Ya’alon (, urging him to use his influence to not wait on the US in dealing with Iran — an October date will only help Obama’s re-election and might seriously endanger Israel.

JIM VINEYARD                               

P.S.  Almost time to go fishing - 3:39 a.m.!